Commercial Forecasting & Analytics Lead

Job Purpose Summary As the leader of Japan's Commercial Forecasting & Analytics department, this role is accountable for leading a team of forecasting, integrated demand planning and analytics professionals, shaping forecasting strategy, and providing executive leadership with robust forecasts, market insights and scenario-based recommendations that drive business decisions. Working closely with Commercial, Finance, Medical, and Market Access, the role develops, challenges and refines commercial assumptions, translates market uncertainty into actionable business scenarios, and ensures alignment between commercial ambition, demand plans and operational feasibility. Beyond delivering forecasts and demand plans, the role is responsible for building team capability, developing high-performing teams, and fostering a culture of data-driven decision-making, collaboration and continuous improvement. Why this role This role offers a unique opportunity to operate across the full business value chain, from market opportunity and commercial strategy through demand planning and supply execution. Unlike many forecasting roles that focus purely on statistical forecasting or demand planning, this role provides direct exposure to business decision-making and allows you to influence both commercial outcomes and operational execution. You will: · Influence business decisions across a diverse portfolio of innovative medicines and vaccines. · Partner directly with Business Unit Heads, Finance leaders, and Supply Chain leadership. · Lead a team that shapes business outcomes through forecasting, analytics, and business insight. · Gain end-to-end visibility from market opportunity and sales forecasting through manufacturing and supply execution. · Build forecasting approaches tailored to Japan's market realities rather than simply adopting global forecasting models. · Develop a broad understanding of the business by working across multiple therapeutic areas, products and stages of the product lifecycle Key responsibilities Deliver forecasts and predictive analytics that enable better business decisions · Lead Japan's commercial forecasting and demand planning process across the portfolio, including innovative medicines, vaccines, new launches and established products. · Develop, challenge and refine commercial assumptions in partnership with Business unit leaders and Finance, and convert them into robust forecasts, business scenarios and strategic recommendations. Ensure that internal and external business drivers are appropriately reflected in forecasting assumptions. · Analyze the variance between actual and forecast, and continuously fine-tune predictive models to maintain high accuracy Build and develop a high performing forecasting & analytics Team · Provide strong people management for a professional team of data analysts, data scientists and business planners. · Cultivate team capabilities, manage performance evaluations, and upgrade the team’s overall ability to translate complex data into actionable business stories. Lead integrated forecasting and demand planning · Lead integrated demand planning by converting commercial forecasts and business scenarios into aligned demand plans that support business objectives while considering operational feasibility. · Challenge unrealistic demand assumptions where necessary and support fact-based discussions to balance commercial ambition with supply feasibility, product availability and inventory risk. Represent Japan in Global planning process and ensure forecast accountability · Own Japan's forecast submission process and ensure forecasts are submitted accurately and on time as part of the commercial planning cycle. · Act as the key representative for Japan in regional demand discussion, providing clear explanations of forecast assumptions, business context, market dynamics, risks, and opportunities. · Ensure Japan-specific market realities are appropriately reflected in enterprise planning and supply decisions *Future scope of job and working location will be determined by company. Basic Qualification Skill ・Agile and distributed decision-making under pressure and with incomplete information using evidence and applying judgement to balance pace, rigor and risk, governance and control, managing ambiguity and paradox. ・Building strong relationships with Commercial teams who hold final decision-making power, acting as collaborative strategic partner rather than an isolated data provider. ・Ability to lead cross-functional alignment and drive consensus across stakeholders with different priorities. ・Strong executive communication skills, with the ability to translate complex data and assumptions into clear business narratives and recommendations. ・Creating a performance culture and driving results, prioritization, execution, delivering performance. Experience ・10+ years of professional experience in Commercial (Sales/Marketing), Business analytics/intelligence or Business planning within Pharmaceutical (Rx/Ethical drug) or Fast-Moving Consumer goods industries. ・Hands-on experience in statistical modelling and simulation with multiple variables incorporating identification of key drivers, risks, financials and sensitivity analysis, using customer data, market data or prescription data. ・Experience supporting new product launches, lifecycle management, business planning or financial planning through forecasting and scenario analysis. ・Minimum 4 years of experience leading and managing a team of specialized professionals Education/Certification/Language ・University degree (Data Science, Computer Science, Statistics, Mathematics, Business, Economics, Finance) or practical experience in a relevant field ・Good written and verbal communications skills in English Bilingual Japanese / English preferred. Preferred Qualification ・Experience in the Understanding of the pharmaceutical industry ・Experience leading commercial excel